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Indian Nuclear Industry
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Maps courtesy of Argonne National Laboratory
Russia
- Japan - Korea
- China - Taiwan-
India - Mongolia
Nuclear
Power for National
Development:
An Indian Perspective
Department of Atomic Energy
Cover:
Rajasthan Atomic Power Station 3?4 at Rawatbhatta, Rajasthan
Table of Contents
Executive
Summary
Introduction
Table-1:
Sixteenth Electric Power Survey Estimate
Fuel Resource Position
Table-2:
India's Energy Resource Position9
Nuclear Power
Nuclear Power
Programme
Status of
Nuclear Technology in India
Image
1- Stages of the Indian Nuclear Power Programme
Image
2- Nuclear Power Stations in India
Safety of Nuclear
Power
Human Resource
Economics of Nuclear
Power
Global picture for
Nuclear Power
Future Programme
Table-3:
Nuclear Power Plants - Present Status and Future Plans
Care for Global Environment
External
Additionally
Concluding Remarks
| • | Nuclear energy has very important short term and long term roles in the energy scenario in India. The three stage nuclear power programme that has been chalked out to support sustainable development in the country would, in addition to resource sustainability and resolution of radioactive waste management, make important contribution to minimisation of greenhouse gas emission, a matter of global interest. |
| • | India has developed expertise in every aspect of nuclear technology and is in a position to undertake a major expansion of its nuclear power programme. External additionalities in the nuclear power field, if available considering our track record and domestic capability, are welcome. |
| • | The economics of nuclear power plants is favourable in many areas of the country. To augment the installed capacity, capital is needed for any option that we choose to follow, and percentage difference between various options may not be significant. |
| • | Revival of nuclear energy in different parts of the world is expected to occur sooner or later. Nuclear power plays a major role in most of the sustainable scenarios associated with the two major new international studies of long-term energy prospects. |
| • | Considering that India has a mature technology base and that economics of nuclear power is favourable at many areas of the country, DAE has formulated a programme for increasing the nuclear installed capacity. This programme envisages setting up about 20,000 MWe installed capacity by the year 2020, which also includes light water reactors (LWRs). While planners and many energy experts opine that the programme as proposed is modest, the Department of Atomic Energy wants to pursue a cautious approach and move in a stepwise manner before taking up higher goals. |
| • | The per capita carbon emission by the developed countries is above 10 tonnes per year, while the corresponding figure for India is only about 1 tonne per year. Hence if populous countries like India start producing carbon dioxide at a rate which on per capita basis equals that of the developed countries, the adverse effect will not only have national and regional dimension, but global dimensions. Therefore, it is only pertinent that growth of nuclear power in India is accelerated in near future. |
Nuclear Power for National Development - An Indian Perspective
Each country has to address issues relating to sustainable long-term development in a manner that is consistent with its socio-economic condition, natural resources and technological capability. The level of development in a society is strongly dependent on the level of energy availability and growth rate in energy use in any country depends on its current level of development. The energy use in developed countries is projected to grow slowly, while it is growing very fast in the developing countries. Energy security is critical to economic development. While energy in a broad sense comprises many options, it has been the experience that electricity becomes the predominant form of energy as development takes place in a country. This paper examines the scenario in India with regard to electricity generation growth rate and its sustainability with regard to resource position.
The overwhelming
energy need of Indian industry and agriculture is naturally in the form of demand
for electricity. Gross electricity generation during the fiscal year ending
March 31, 20011 was about 500,000 million units2. In absolute
terms, this number is very large, larger than the corresponding figures in many
developed countries. However, on per capita basis, this is very low when compared
to many developing countries or even the world average. Provisional results
of the Census of India 2001 indicate that at midnight of March 1, 2001, India's
population stood at 1.027 billion. Therefore, on per capita basis, electricity
generation in the fiscal year 2000-01 was 487 units, while actual consumption
is less by an amount equal to transmission and distribution (T?D) losses3.
In the Organization for Economic Cooperation ? Development (OECD) countries,
the corresponding figure is about 10,000 units4. Therefore, to reach
similar standard of living, a very fast growth in electricity generation in
India is necessary.
________________________________________________________
1.
In India, fiscal year is from 1st April to 31st" March. The year 2001-02 means
the period from 1st April, 2001 to 31st" March, 2002.
2. Monthly review of power sector performance, March 2001,
Central Electricity Authority, New Delhi. The word 'unit' is used in place of
kWhr
3. T?D losses in India are very high, of the order of 22%.
4. World Energy Outlook - 2000 - Highlights, Page 48, International
Energy Agency, Paris.
In India,
the Central Electricity Authority (CEA) undertakes periodic electric power surveys
(EPS) to make projections of the energy requirements of the country. These estimates
guide the planning process for capacity addition in the country. CEA released
its report on the 16th electric power survey5 in January this year
and projected energy requirement to increase from 529,014 million units in 2001-02
to 1,317,644 in 2016-17. Table-1 gives further details. Installed capacity6
on 3 1.03.2001 was about 101,150 MWe7.
Table-1: Sixteenth Electric Power Survey EstimatesRegion Energy requirements (MUs)
| 2001-02 | 2006-07 | 2011-12 | 2016-17 | |
| North | 157,466 | 220,820 | 308,528 | 429,480 |
| West | 168,401 | 224,927 | 299,075 | 395,859 |
| South | 142,980 | 194,102 | 262,718 | 354,599 |
| East | 53,586 | 69,467 | 90,396 | 117,248 |
| North-East | 6,404 | 9,501 | 14,061 | 20,756 |
| Islands | 176 | 280 | 444 | 702 |
| Total | 529,014 | 719,097 | 975,222 | 1,318,644 |
Region EPeak load (MW)
| 2001-02 | 2006-07 | 2011-12 | 2016-17 | |
| North | 25,307 | 35,540 | 49,674 | 69,178 |
| West | 26,502 | 35,523 | 46,825 | 61,966 |
| South | 22,784 | 31,017 | 42,061 | 56,833 |
| East | 9,229 | 11,990 | 15,664 | 20,416 |
| North-East | 1,272 | 1,875 | 2,789 | 4,134 |
| Islands | 38 | 60 | 94 | 148 |
| Total | 85,132 | 115,705 | 157,107 | 212,725 |
5.
PowerLine, Feb 2001, p24.
6. To meet a certain peak demand load, the installed capacity
has to be more than the peak load because plant availability factor is always
less than 1.
7. Monthly review of power sector performance, March 2001,
Central Electricity Authority, New Delhi.
Fuel Resource Position
Let us examine the fuel resource situation in India (Table-2). India's oil and gas reserves are very modest. Hydroelectric-potential is reasonable and concentrated in the northeastern part of the country and must be fully exploited. Non-conventional sources like solar, bio-mass and wind will play a useful role, but at the present level of technological development, are suitable more as distributed sources to meet the demand of small communities. Demographic shifts indicating continual growth of urban populations with associated high densities and bulk energy needs for industrial activity necessitate considerable growth in large centralised electricity generating systems.
India has reasonable coal reserves - more than 200 billion tonnes. Out of this mineable are only 73 billion tonnes. Coalmines in India are concentrated in the north-central part of the country, while load centers are dispersed all over. Setting up a coal-fired power plant in the south, the north or the west requires haulage of coal over long distances. At the same time, coal-based stations which account for most of power generation capacity today, will continue to play a major role for many years to come. Serious challenges are likely to arise in future on account of transportation of a large amount of coal across the country. The problem is further compounded due to the fact that Indian coal has high ash content and low calorific value. The transportation problem is in addition to the environmental problems related to disposal of ash and emission of greenhouse gases.
If India's
per capita electricity were to rise to say 5000 units per year and India's population
is expected to rise to 1.5 billion by the year 2050, total energy demand would
rise to 7500 billion units per year. Expressed in terms of units used in the
Table-2, it amounts to 856 GWe-yr. If we produce 70% of electricity using coal
fired plants, and use 70% of presently known total coal reserves for power production,
coal reserves would not last for whole of this century, rather not even three
quarters of this century. This is a very optimistic estimate as the calorific
value used in the calculations of energy potential in the Table-28
is on the high side and the calculations are based on the total reserves and
not mineable reserves. Therefore, to ensure long-term availability of energy,
India has to look at other sources of energy. Fuel resource position points
to nuclear fuel resource as a possible candidate for consideration.
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8.
As mentioned earlier Indian coal has very low calorific value and experts feel
the average calorific value should be taken as 3500 kcal/kg rather than 5000
as taken in the calculations reported in Table-2.
Table-2: India's Energy Resource Position9
| Resource | Amount | Potential (GWe-yr) |
| Coal | 206 billion tonne (Total) | 41,000 |
| 75 billion tonne (Proven) | 15,000 | |
| Oil | 0.75 billion tonne | 300 |
| Natural Gas | 692 billion Cu.m. | 250 |
| Hydro | 84 GW at 60% PLF | 84 GW at 60% PLF |
| Uranium | 78,000 tonne metal | In PHWRs - 420 |
| In FBRs - 54,000 | ||
| Thorium | 518,000 tonne metal | In Breeders - 358,000 |
| Non-conventional | |
| Wind | 20 |
| Small Hydro | 10 |
| Total Solar Insolation | 600,000 |
| Ocean thermal, Sea wave ? Tidal | 79 |
Assumptions
for Potential Calculation in Table 1:
For Coal, Oil and Gas: Complete source is used for electricity
generation with thermal efficiency h = 30% and calorific value for Coal = 5000
kcal/kg, Oil = 10,200 kcal/kg ? Gas =9150 kcal/1000m3 For Nuclear:
Fuel burn up in PHWRs = 6700 MW day/tonne ? h = 29% FBRs can use 60% uranium
with h = 42%. Breeders can use 60% thorium h = 42%
Nuclear Power
Let us now
examine nuclear fuel resource in India. Our uranium deposits are modest, while
thorium deposits are large. Uranium-238, the dominant isotope in natural uranium
is a fertile material and cannot make a reactor work by itself. Energy in a
nuclear reactor is generated through fission of Uranium-235, the other isotope
present in natural uranium in small quantities (0.7%). While producing energy
from fission of Uranium-235, the nuclear reactors also converts a part of Uranium-238
to Plutonium-239, which also participates in energy
________________________________________________________
9. R B Grover, "Nuclear Energy: Emerging Trends", CURRENT SCIENCE, Vol 78, No 10, 25 May, 2000.
generation
through fission in a manner similar to Uranium-235. The spent fuel from thermal
reactors thus contains Plutonium-239. On discharge from the reactor, spent fuel
can be dealt with in two ways. The first one termed as 'open cycle', consists
of treating the entire spent fuel as waste and disposing it as such. With this
approach about 1% of the energy potential exploitable from uranium is utilised.
To avoid this colossal waste and to realise fuller energy potential of our uranium
resources, a closed fuel cycle involving reprocessing of spent fuel to separate
plutonium and uranium-238 has to be pursued. Besides enabling recycle of plutonium
and uranium, reprocessing helps to sort out the wastes according to their activity
and their decay period and recycle most of the long lived components, thereby
assisting waste disposal and minimising environmental impact. Similarly, thorium
is a fertile material and has to be converted to a fissile material namely uranium-233.
To ensure long term energy security for the country, we have chosen to follow
the 'closed cycle' approach. The pursuit of the closed cycle approach calls
for setting up of reprocessing plants and breeder reactors. India has taken
cognisance of these facts viz. resource position and need for ensuring long-term
energy security, and accordingly formulated a three-stage nuclear power programme
as a technology solution to tap vast energy potential in our Uranium and Thorium
resources.
Nuclear Power Programme
The first stage, comprising setting up of pressurised heavy water reactors (PHWRs) and associated fuel cycle facilities, is already in the industrial domain. The technology for the manufacture of various components and equipment for PHWRs in India is now well established and has evolved through active collaboration between the Department of Atomic Energy (DAE) and the industry. Twelve PHWRs are operating and two PHWRs of 500 MWe rating are under construction. We expect to launch construction of two more PHWRs in this year and more such units are being planned. As we gained experience and mastered various aspects of the nuclear technology, performance of our plants has continuously improved. Average capacity factor of our plants has steadily risen from 60% in 1995-96 to 82.5% in the year 2000-01.
The second stage envisages setting up of fast breeder reactors (FBRs) backed by reprocessing plants and plutonium-based fuel fabrication plants. To multiply nuclear power generating capacity, fast breeder reactors are necessary for our programme. A higher power-generating base is also needed to establish use of thorium on a large scale in the third stage of our programme. A 40 MWt Fast Breeder Test Reactor (FBTR) has been successfully operating at the Indira Gandhi Centre for Atomic Research (IGCAR), Kalpakkam for the last fifteen years. FBTR uses a unique and indigenously developed mixed uranium carbide-plutonium carbide fuel, which has functioned extremely well up to the current burn up of over 72,000 MW days/tonne. FBTR has provided valuable experience with liquid metal cooled Fast Breeder Reactor Technology and the confidence to embark upon the design and technology development of a 500 MWe Prototype Fast Breeder Reactor (PFBR). PFBR is a pool type reactor. The detailed design and technology development of the PFBR are in advanced stage and construction work on this reactor is expected to start later this year. This will also be located at IGCAR, Kalpakkam near Chennai.
The third stage will be based on the thorium-uranium-233 cycle. Uranium-233 is obtained by irradiation of thorium in PHWRs and FBRs. An Advanced Heavy Water Reactor (AHWR) is being developed at the Bhabha Atomic Research Centre (BARC) to expedite transition to thorium based systems. The reactor physics design of AHWR is tuned to generate about 75% power in thorium, and to maintain negative void co-efficient of reactivity10 under all operating conditions. A detailed project report for this reactor is being made and it should be possible to launch the construction of this reactor in a few years.
To jump start
the nuclear power programme, two Boiling Water Reactors were set up at Tarapur
near Mumbai in late sixties. These reactors are still in operation. To speed
up nuclear power development, in parallel to the indigenous self-reliant three-stage
programme, as an additionality, we are planning to set up light water reactors.
The agreement with the Russian Federation for setting up two 1000 MWe units
at Kudankulam is a step in this direction. Pre-project activities for setting
up these units are in progress and we expect to start the construction of these
units later this year.
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10.
A characteristic which enhances the safety of the reactor system by making it
self-correcting in case of any transient.
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Status of Nuclear Technology in India
Nuclear power
technology in India has reached a state of maturity and DAE continues to take
steps to further its development. These steps are aimed at further improving
the safety and availability of operating stations, reducing the gestation period
of plants under construction by using innovative management techniques, cost
optimisation and devel-opment of new reactor systems. For example, repair technologies
have been developed to improve availability factor of nuclear power plants.
Some of the repair jobs completed successfully include en-masse replacement
of coolant channels, end-shield repair, and calandria inlet manifold management.
One of the components of the project gestation period is the time taken between
hydrotest to commercial operation, and NPCIL has been able to reduce it from
854 days for a plant (KAPS-2) commissioned in September 1995 to 161 days for
a plant (RAPS-4) commissioned in December 2000. To further shorten gestation
period, for the plants now under construction, execution is being done by contracting
out packages of activities rather than single activities. This approach simplifies
coordination, and therefore increases speed of execution of various works.
Indian industry is geared to manufacture equipment needed
for setting up of nuclear power plants. Plants for the production of heavy water,
fabrication of fuel and mining of uranium are under direct control of the Department,
and their performance during the recent years has been excellent. India's experience
in managing the back-end of the fuel cycle is also noteworthy. Fuel reprocessing
started in India early in the programme based on indigenous efforts. At present,
India has three reprocessing plants to enable recycle of plutonium and uranium,
the first at Trombay, the second at Tarapur and the third at Kalpakkam. With
total protection of the environment as an overriding consideration, management
of the radioactive waste in the fuel cycle has received high priority in India's
nuclear programme right from inception. Facilities for managing intermediate
and low level wastes have been set up and are operating successfully along with
every nuclear facility in the country. To treat high level waste from reprocessing
plants, a waste immobilisation plant has been set up at Tarapur incorporating
hi-tech features like complete remote operation and maintenance. A facility
for interim storage of vitrified waste has also been built nearby. For ultimate
disposal of high level waste, research on setting up an underground waste repository
is in progress.
With regard to the new reactor systems, IGCAR is working
for the design and technology development of fast reactors, while BARC is developing
an Advanced Heavy Water Reactor (AHWR). There are basically four reasons11
for carrying out development of AHWR system.
___________________________________________________________
11.
A. Kakodkar, "Development of nuclear power in India - a perspective", May 1998,
Mumbai, India.
1. Nuclear fuel resource available to us in plentiful quantities to sustain a large power programme is thorium and we must develop technologies for its utilisation as early as possible.Successful completion of technology development of AHWR will be a major milestone in our endeavour to utilise thorium.
2. The experience available in India with heavy water technology must rapidly translate into a system based on thorium.
3. Uranium-233, which is the fissile isotope derived from thorium, runs equally well in thermal as well as fast spectrum. Since India has a mature thermal reactor technology, there is a strong motivation to continue with this. At later point of time, when the fast reactor technology has also fully matured, we can make relative comparison.
4. The development of AHWR has given us an opportunity to incorporate several passive safety features in the design of this reactor.
In this context it may be recalled that the Russian President Vladimir Putin announced an initiative in the UN Millennium Summit where he has recognised that the most rapid energy production growth will take place in the next century in the developing countries. He has also said that to diminish ecological degradation caused by green-house gases and to save global fossil reserves for non-electricity uses by the present and future generations there is the need to develop new nuclear technologies which are also proliferation resistant.
To summarise,
India has built up experience and developed expertise and capability in every
aspect of nuclear power-related technology. It is thus in a position to undertake
a major expansion of its nuclear power programme.
Safety of Nuclear Power
Safety has been accorded a prime position in all our activities, throughout the entire nuclear fuel cycle, starting from prospecting and mining of ores to management of waste. This encompasses all aspects of safety - nuclear safety, radiological safety, industrial safety, fire safety, environmental protection and occupational health. Safety is also an important subject for research and development in all the units and dedicated groups are involved in continuous monitoring and upgrading of systems based on our own experience and experience gained elsewhere.
We have gained
an operating experience of over 170 reactor-years with a good record of safety
of the operating personnel, public and the environment. Safety measures in all
our activities are in conformity with the norms stipulated by an independent
regulatory body, the Atomic Energy Regulatory Board (AERB). These norms are
also in line with the international standards.
Human Resource
Human resource
development has been given high importance right from the day the programme
was initiated in the country. Adequate training facilities have been set up
within the Department to provide specialized training in nuclear related areas.
A Training School to impart one-year orientation course in nuclear science and
engineering has been functioning since the late fifties. Today we have a pool
of around 6000 professionals competent in the area of nuclear science and technology.
Many new schemes have been introduced in the recent years to further augment
the training facilities. In addition, further synergistic programmes are being
developed between the Indian education system and the Atomic Energy Programme,
to strengthen human resource development activities of DAE.
Economics of Nuclear Power
The comparative economics of nuclear power plants depends on local conditions, discount rates and the cost of other fuels such as coal and gas. The issues to be addressed in a comparative techno-economic analysis include the location of coal mines relative to load centres, coal transportation, the availability of railroads for transportation, the ash content of the fuel and associated environment impacts. Among the alternatives that should be considered, hydropower provides a low-cost electricity generation option, but hydro-potential is largely concentrated in the northeast part of the country. Still we would like to fully exploit it and address issues relating to transmission of power to load centres and also issues arising out of social cost of submergence of large areas. In the case of natural gas, gas prices, which constitute a sizeable fraction of the electricity cost for a gas-fired plants are subject to market forces. The cost of electricity generated from gas-fired plants can therefore vary substantially depending on fluctuations in market conditions.
An internal study done by the Nuclear Power Corporation of India Ltd. (NPCIL) indicates that the competitiveness of nuclear power relative to coal-fired power varies depending on how far away a power plant is from a coal mine. If the coal-fired plant can be located close enough to the pit-head, it will be cheaper than the nuclear power. But if, in order to be close to the load centre it serves, the coal fired plant were more than 1200 km away from the coal pit-head, then nuclear power is competitive12. Expressed in a different way, one may say that economics of a coal-fired power plant is location dependent, while of a nuclear power plant is location independent.
The study referred to above compares generation costs levelized over the lifetime of the plant. This depends on capital cost, operation ? maintenance (O?M) cost and the fuel cost. For a nuclear power plant, capital cost is higher than a conventional13 coal-fired power plant. One may question the ability of a developing country to raise capital needed up-front for setting up a nuclear power plant. However, it is to be noted that the capital is needed not only for setting up of a power plant, but also for creating matching infrastructure for transmission and distribution, for creating infrastructure for coal mining and coal transportation or for fuel cycle facilities. If one adds all the capital required, percentage difference between the two options viz., nuclear and coal may be only marginal. This, however requires a detailed investigation. Developed countries are looking for replacement power plants and they do not have to augment transmission and distribution network. This however, is the most expensive component of the additional investment. A rough estimate indicates that it is only marginally lower than that required for setting up a conventional coal-fired power plant on per megawatt basis.
To summarise,
the economics of nuclear power plants is favourable in many areas of the country.
To augment the installed capacity, capital is needed for any option that we
choose to follow and percentage difference between various options may not be
significant.
Global picture for Nuclear Power
Six new power
reactors, three in India and one each in Pakistan, Brazil and the Czech Republic
with the total capacity of 3047 MWe, were connected to the grid in the year
2000. Construction continued on 30 more power reactors, principally in China,
India, Japan, Republic of Korea (ROK), and Ukraine. Further, ROK, Democratic
Peoples' Republic of Korea (DPRK), Japan, India, Russia, China and Iran included
additional reactors in their national energy plans. Several countries including
India favour life extension of existing nuclear power plants beyond the original
intended period. In the US, about 40% of operating plants have indicated intention
to seek life extension and the Nuclear Regulatory Commission
___________________________________________________________
12.
A K Nema, B K Pathak and RB Grover, "India - Nuclear Power for GHG Mitigation
and Sustainable Energy Development", Nuclear Power for Greenhouse Gas Mitigation,
IAEA, November 2000.
13. Incorporation of clean coal technologies reduces the difference
in the capital cost of a coal-fired plant and a nuclear power plant.
(NRC) expects the figure to eventually reach to 85%14. Technological improvements are being carried out in many countries including India, to increase the capacity of the existing nuclear power plants, resulting in enhanced production of electricity. US regulators are forming a Future Licensing Project Organisation (FLPO) anticipating the possible construction of new nuclear power plants. According to the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC), "Several utilities and organisations have contacted the NRC to initiate discussions associated with the possible construction of new nuclear power plants in the US. These include Exelon's request for a pre-application review of a Pebble Bed Modular Reactor (PBMR) and Exelon's stated intention to submit an application to build the Pebble Bed Reactor. Licensees have also indicated that applications for early site permits could be submitted in the near future. These permits would allow pre-certification of sites for possible construction of nuclear power plants."
"An application for design certification of the Westinghouse AP 1000, an advanced light water reactor incorporating 'passive' safety features, also is expected next year. While the schedules for these activities are not certain, NRC is gearing up to carry out its licensing responsibilities efficiently."15
In Sweden, where public pressure demanded phasing out of nuclear power plants at the beginning of eighties, public opinion now favours nuclear power. Swedish State Secretary, Lars Rekke, told the Nucleonics Week16, "The Swedish government isn't going to risk security of supply by shutting nuclear until we have new electricity sources". Simultaneously, Lars Josefsson, CEO, Vattenfall has said that Sweden would still be generating half its electricity from nuclear, 10 years from now.
A new independent
opinion poll shows increased support for nuclear power in the US over the past
two years, with half now supporting nuclear-generated electricity.17
In addition to the above trends, the studies conducted recently
by prestigious learned organisations point out to the inevitability of nuclear
energy on a long term basis. One such study was published in 1999 by the Royal
Society and the Royal Academy18 of Engineering. The study
___________________________________________________________
14.
Nuc Net News No.356-A, 27th Oct., 2000.
15. Nuc Net News N/120-A 3rd April 2001.
16. Nucleonics Week - February 8, 2001, p15.
17. Nuc Net News N 148/01-A 26th April, 2001.
18. Nuclear Energy-The Future climate, the Royal Society and
the Royal Academy of Engineering, UK, June 1999.
concludes that there is a need for setting up new nuclear power plants in the U.K and recommends a carbon tax and major investment in R?D in all energy sectors by creating an International Fund.
The year 2000 saw the publication of two new studies of long-term comprehensive energy scenarios. The first is the IPCC's (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES), commissioned in 1996 and accepted by the IPCC's plenary in 2000. The second is the World Energy Assessment (WEA) intended as input to the ninth session of Commission for Sustainable Development (CSD-9). Riahi and Roehrl19 have analysed SRES Scenarios and identified 4 of the 40 scenarios as sustainable and created two additional sustainable scenarios. The analysis conveys the message that in both 2050 and 2100, nuclear power will be one of the top sources of electricity. In many of the scenarios analysed by the WEA20, nuclear energy forms an important component. In the high growth non-fossil scenario, projected share of nuclear electricity production in 2100 ranges as high as 46%.
The US Vice
President Dick Cheney stated recently that his energy policy team was considering
the future of US nuclear power, and that new nuclear plants could reduce greenhouse
gases. He also said "if you want to do something about carbon dioxide emissions,
then you ought to build nuclear power plants. They don't emit any carbon dioxide."
Future Programme
Considering that India has a mature technology base and that economics of nuclear power is favourable at many areas of the country, DAE has formulated a programme for increasing the nuclear installed capacity. This programme envisages setting up about 20,000 MWe installed capacity, including LWRs, by the year 2020. Details are given in Table-3. The interesting aspect is that planners and many energy experts opine that the programme as proposed is modest. However, the Department wants to pursue a cautious approach and move in a stepwise manner before taking up higher goals.
___________________________________________________________
19.
Riahi K. and Roehrl R A "Energy Technology Strategies for Carbon Dioxide Mitigation
and Sustainable Development", Environmental Economics and Policy Studies, Vol.
3, No.2 pps. 89-124
20. World Energy Assessment: Energy and the Challenge of Sustainability,
Goldemberg J. (ed), 2000, UNDP
Table-3: Nuclear Power Plants - Present Status and Future Plans
| Plants under operation | MWe |
| 14
reactors at 6 sites viz., Tarapur, Rawatbhata, Kalpakkam Narora, Kakrapar and Kaiga |
2720 |
| Plants under construction | |
| 2x500 PHWR at Tarapur | 1000 |
| Plants likely to commence in the current financial year | |
| 2x220
PHWR 2x1000 VVER 1x500 PFBR |
2940 |
| Future Plans | |
| 2x220
PHWR 4x500 PFBR 10x500 PHWR 6x1000 LWR |
13440 |
| Total | 20100 |
Per capita
electricity consumption is an important measure of development in a developing
country and as mentioned earlier, India has to increase its per capita electricity
production several folds to reach a reasonable level of development. At present
fossil fuels play a dominant role in energy production and there are two very
important issues associated with the use of fossil fuels. One is the influence
on environment and the other is the time period for the depletion of the fossil
fuels, which can be estimated by dividing the reserves with the rate of production.
On both these issues alarm bells have been sounded. Oil production would probably
decline before coal. Deterioration in the state of environment because of the
emission of carbon dioxide, which is continuously increased since the beginning
of the industrial revolution, has led to the formulation of the Kyoto Protocol,
which alone is not sufficient. The per capita carbon emission by the developed
countries is above 10 tonnes per year, while the corresponding figure for India
is only about 1 tonne per year. Imagine the situation when populous countries
like India start producing carbon dioxide at a rate, which on per capita basis,
equals that of the developed countries (which is inescapable in a coal-based
scenario). The adverse effects have not only national and regional dimension,
but global dimensions. Therefore, it is only pertinent that growth of nuclear
power in India is accelerated in near future.
External Additionally
While the guiding principle of our nuclear power programme would be self-reliance, in order to accelerate the indigenous programme, we are also considering the import of LWR technology. It may be recalled that the first Indian Atomic Power Station at Tarapur (TAPS), which consists of two BWRs, was built by the General Electric of the US as a turnkey project under a bilateral agreement with the US in 1963. Later in 1988, we signed an Inter-Governmental Agreement (IGA) with the former Soviet Union (USSR) for the setting up, inter alia, of 2 x 1000 MWe VVERs at Kudankulam.
In this context, it would be important to recall that India is, what is called in IAEA parlance, an INFCIRC-66 country i.e. a country which has "facility-specific" safeguards arrangements with the IAEA. Accordingly, a trilateral safeguards agreement with the US and IAEA was entered into by India in 1971 for TAPS. Though the bilateral agreement with the US on TAPS entered into in 1963 expired in 1993, India placed spent fuel at TAPS on voluntary safeguards. Similarly the Rajasthan Atomic Power Station (RAPS) continues to be under the IAEA safeguards, although Canada, with whose assistance the first RAPS unit was built, walked out of the project in 1974. In pursuance of these safeguards agreements, any material such as fuel or heavy water imported for such facilities is placed under IAEA safeguards. We have also signed a safeguards agreement with the IAEA for the Kudankulam reactors.
Any reasonable world nuclear order can only expect countries to fulfil their international safeguards commitments and no more than that. This should also ensure assurance of supplies for the full operating life of the plant. The Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG) guidelines, however, make demands beyond the genuine proliferation concerns and are obviously coercive in intent and are slowing down the expansion of nuclear power capacity in the world. In the case of India, given its large nuclear market, the present NSG guidelines, which ask for "full scope" safeguards as a pre-condition for international cooperation in reactor construction, also have negative consequences for the commercial interests of potential supplier countries.
As regards our export control system, we have a stringent mechanism in place to regulate exports of strategic materials. Under the Atomic Energy Act, first adopted in 1948 and later amended in 1962 by the Indian Parliament, DAE strictly regulates the export of prescribed substances and equipment. In keeping with international practice, end-use assurances and re-transfer provisions are insisted upon in the rare case of atomic energy related exports essentially pertaining to minerals and such raw materials. Our record on nuclear non-proliferation is impeccable and we have often being cited by experts as a "classic" non-proliferator. It is important to realise that facility-specific safeguards are adequate, practicable, and have stood the test of time as far as India is concerned. India has always been willing to accept facility-specific safeguards in the event of foreign collaboration projects.
It may be
worthwhile to recall what former Ambassador John B. Ritch III of US Mission
to IAEA, presently head of the Uranium Institute21 has said "Nuclear
energy is the only technology capable of meeting the world's expanding needs
safely, without contributing to global warming. But misplaced fears about weapon
proliferation, nuclear waste and another Chernobyl are preventing politicians
from plain speaking. The largest growth markets in energy consumption are China
and India, both of which already have weapons capabilities. In short, almost
everywhere the reduction in carbon emissions could yield important benefits
for climate protection, proliferation is not even an issue."
Concluding Remarks
Nuclear energy has very important short term and long term roles in the energy scenario in India. The three stage nuclear power programme that has been chalked out to support sustainable development in the country would, in addition to resource sustainability and resolution of radioactive waste management, make important contribution to minimisation of green house gas (GHG) emission, a matter of global interest. External additionalities in the nuclear power field, if available considering our track record and domestic capability, are welcome.
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21. John Ritch(111), "Nuclear Green" Perspective on Science, Diplomacy ? Atoms forPeace," IAEA Bulletin, Vol.41, No.2, June 1999.
Published by R K Bhatnagar, Hd. Publication Dn, Dept. of Atomic Energy, Govt. of India, Mumbai-1, and printed by him at M/s Sundaram Art Printing Press, Wadala, Mumbai-31
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. World Nuclear Association: Nuclear Power in South Asia (India and Pakistan) http://www.world-nuclear.org/info/inf53.htm . |